Why Has the US Struggled to Secure a Ceasefire?

A Year of War and Diplomacy

One year ago, following the deadly October 7 attacks and the onset of Israel’s offensive in Gaza, President Joe Biden made history by becoming the first U.S. president to visit Israel during a time of war. After meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the war cabinet in Tel Aviv, Biden made a bold declaration to the world: “You are not alone.” However, he also urged Israel to avoid the mistakes made by an “enraged” America following the 9/11 attacks.

Fast forward to September of this year, at the United Nations in New York, Biden once again called for restraint, this time between Israel and Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu responded with a reminder of Israel’s military reach across the region. Less than two hours after Netanyahu’s statement, Israeli pilots launched an airstrike on southern Beirut, killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah using American-supplied bombs. This marked one of the most pivotal moments in the conflict that had unfolded since Hamas’ attack on Israel a year prior.

Biden’s efforts to mediate peace were, in a sense, shattered by this event, illustrating the immense challenges his administration faced in trying to broker a ceasefire amidst a deepening conflict.

The Hostage Crisis and Gaza’s Devastation

The Biden administration’s primary diplomatic goal has been to secure a ceasefire for the release of hostages held by Hamas. A year after Hamas breached Israel’s heavily fortified southern perimeter, killing over 1,200 people and abducting 250, many of these hostages remain in captivity. Seven American citizens are among the missing, with some presumed dead.

Meanwhile, the situation in Gaza has only worsened. In retaliation, Israel’s offensive has resulted in the deaths of nearly 42,000 Palestinians, according to figures from the Hamas-controlled health ministry. Entire neighborhoods have been obliterated, and the territory is plagued by hunger, displacement, and destruction. Thousands of Palestinians remain missing, while the United Nations reports unprecedented casualties among aid workers, with allegations of Israeli forces blocking humanitarian shipments—something Israel denies.

As the conflict spread to Lebanon and the occupied West Bank, Iran retaliated for Nasrallah’s death by launching 180 missiles at Israel. The crisis continues to escalate, with fears that the region could plunge deeper into turmoil.

A Year of Diplomatic Efforts

Throughout the past year, I’ve followed U.S. diplomacy closely, traveling with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on his frequent trips to the Middle East. Despite the Biden administration’s relentless efforts to ease tensions, its goal of securing a ceasefire has been elusive.

Biden’s team insists that U.S. pressure influenced the course of Israeli military operations, particularly in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah. While much of the city lies in ruins, officials believe the invasion was limited compared to what might have occurred without U.S. intervention. At one point, Biden even suspended a shipment of bombs to dissuade Israel from launching a full-scale assault, but this move sparked outrage from Republicans in Washington and Netanyahu himself.

Despite this, the State Department maintains that U.S. efforts have helped deliver more humanitarian aid to Gaza, even though famine-like conditions persist. Department spokesman Matthew Miller notes that American involvement has been key in getting aid into Gaza, but acknowledges that the process is far from complete.

Blinken has been at the forefront of these efforts, making ten trips to the Middle East since the October attacks. His work, alongside covert CIA negotiations, has been focused on brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. However, these attempts have been repeatedly thwarted.

Failed Negotiations

One notable failure came during Blinken’s ninth visit to the region in August. Initially hopeful, the trip quickly unraveled when Blinken was unable to meet the Emir of Qatar, a crucial intermediary with Hamas. Blinken was later blindsided when Netanyahu insisted on keeping Israeli troops along Gaza’s border with Egypt—a condition that was a deal-breaker for both Hamas and Egypt.

The trip ended in frustration, with Blinken returning to Washington empty-handed. Despite these setbacks, Blinken continued his diplomatic efforts, though his tenth trip notably excluded a visit to Israel.

The Contradictions of U.S. Diplomacy

Critics have been quick to point out the contradictions in the U.S.’s approach. On one hand, the Biden administration calls for peace; on the other, it continues to supply Israel with billions of dollars in military aid. Some argue this shows a failure to apply real leverage over Israel, while others believe the ongoing conflict is a direct result of U.S. policy.

Former intelligence officer Harrison J. Mann, who resigned in protest over the U.S.’s support for Israel, contends that while the Biden administration may have engaged in diplomacy, it has not made any meaningful efforts to change Israel’s behavior. He points to the use of American-supplied weapons in the war as a clear example.

Supporters of Biden, however, point to successes such as last November’s truce, which resulted in the release of over 100 hostages from Gaza in exchange for 300 Palestinian prisoners. U.S. officials also claim they have dissuaded Israel from escalating the war into Lebanon, despite repeated provocations.

Biden’s Struggle with Netanyahu

At the heart of these diplomatic challenges is the complex relationship between Biden and Netanyahu. Despite having known each other for decades, the dynamics between the two leaders have often been strained. While Biden is deeply committed to Israel’s security, some argue this unwavering support has made it difficult for him to exert meaningful pressure on Netanyahu.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert suggests that Netanyahu’s reliance on far-right, ultranationalist members of his cabinet has been a major obstacle to peace. These hardliners have pushed for an even more aggressive military stance, threatening to withdraw support for Netanyahu’s government if he agrees to a ceasefire.

For Olmert, Netanyahu’s reluctance to sign a ceasefire deal is rooted in fear that it could weaken his grip on power. He argues that Netanyahu has consistently blocked opportunities for peace, citing the Prime Minister’s insistence on further clarifications to American-backed ceasefire plans.

A Shift in American Perspective?

Despite these challenges, there is a growing shift in the American public’s perception of the conflict. As younger generations witness the devastation in Gaza through social media, many are questioning the long-standing U.S. support for Israel.

Rashid Khalidi, a professor at Columbia University, argues that Biden’s approach to the conflict is shaped by an outdated worldview that fails to fully consider the Palestinian experience. For Khalidi, the U.S.’s unwavering support for Israel reflects a mindset from a different era—one that increasingly feels disconnected from the realities on the ground.

The Road Ahead

As the conflict continues and the U.S. presidential election looms, the question of how to achieve peace in the Middle East remains unresolved. Vice President Kamala Harris, Biden’s successor in the upcoming election, has yet to outline a concrete plan for brokering a ceasefire. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has also avoided providing specific solutions to the crisis.

The future of U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East may depend on the outcome of the election, but for now, the path to peace remains as elusive as ever.

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